Burnham’s North Still Matters in Labour’s Electoral Test

The upcoming mayoral election in Greater Manchester marks a significant test for the Labour Party under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. As he faces his first electoral challenge since taking office, Burnham can take comfort in knowing that the region remains predominantly Labour territory.

However, beneath this familiar landscape lies a complex web of identity, place, and politics that threaten to upset the party’s applecart. The region’s patchwork of towns and cities is often reduced to its showpiece city, Manchester. Yet, as Bury-born Jon Tonge, a politics professor at the University of Liverpool, points out, “identity and place still matter.” This is evident in the region’s voting patterns, where Labour heartlands like Oldham and Rochdale coexist alongside more affluent areas with distinctly different electoral dynamics.

The recent council election results saw Reform make significant gains across Greater Manchester. Although only one-third of seats were contested, this trend would have spelled disaster for Labour had all seats been up for grabs. Tonge notes that “if Burnham weren’t running, I think it would’ve been a mighty close battle and very difficult for Labour to hold on.”

The change in leadership at Number 10 has had a profound impact on the region’s electoral landscape. With Burnham now at the helm, Labour’s fortunes have shifted decisively in their favor. According to a recent YouGov poll, Bev Craig, Labour’s candidate, is projected to win with a landslide 62-38% lead over Reform’s Sian Astley in the second round of voting.

Burnham’s popularity extends far beyond his own constituency, however. His time as mayor saw significant growth in Manchester’s economy, with an annual rate of 3.1% sustained over a decade – more than twice the UK average. This prosperity has come at a cost, however, with areas like Oldham and Rochdale still struggling to shake off their post-industrial legacy.

As Labour looks to rebuild under Burnham’s leadership, they must address the complex issues that continue to plague this region. The party’s electoral coalition relies heavily on urban voters and those from “left behind” England, but these core constituencies are increasingly socially conservative. This tension between economic growth and social cohesion will require careful management if Labour is to retain its grip on Greater Manchester.

Burnham’s election victory will be a welcome boost to his party’s morale in the short term. However, as the region looks to the future, it is crucial that Labour does not take this outcome for granted. The challenges facing this area are deep-seated and multifaceted, requiring more than just a change of leadership or a boost in popularity.

As voters prepare to elect his replacement, one thing is clear: Burnham’s North still matters. The region’s fate will serve as a litmus test for Labour’s ability to connect with its core constituencies and navigate the complex web of identity, place, and politics that defines this area. Will they succeed in harnessing the region’s growth and progress while addressing its deep-seated social and economic challenges? Only time – and the votes – will tell.