Tankers make sharp U-turns after Houthi shipping threat

The recent announcement by the Iran-linked Houthi group of a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia has sent shockwaves through global shipping lanes, particularly in the Red Sea. At least seven oil tankers have made sharp U-turns close to Yemen since the embargo was announced on Monday, according to ship-tracking data.

The Red Sea is a critical artery of international trade, connecting the Mediterranean to the Gulf of Aden through two choke points: the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Nearly 15% of global sea trade moves through this region, making it a key route for exports of Saudi oil since the US-Israeli conflict led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Maritime experts warn that any attacks on ships in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden would suppress all international traffic. “This is not a blockade, it’s an embargo,” said Rosemary Kelanic from the US-based Defense Priorities think tank. “If the Houthis further restrict trade, prices will go up.”

The EU’s naval force in the region, Aspides, has recommended that merchant vessels linked to Israeli, US or Saudi interests avoid transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden until the threat level decreases. Ship-tracking data shows at least eight ships bound for the Red Sea have made U-turns instead of entering the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the south.

The Houthis’ announcement is in retaliation to a Saudi blockade of ports and airports in Houthi-controlled north-western Yemen. Saudi Arabia has condemned the allegation, vowing to “take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law.”

If the Bab al-Mandab Strait is effectively closed, Saudi Arabia would be forced to move oil all the way through the Mediterranean and around the southern tip of Africa to get to Asia – a costly and time-consuming operation. The impact on consumers won’t be immediate, but experts warn that higher freight rates, energy prices, and consumer costs are inevitable.

Ships close to the Red Sea are broadcasting messages in an attempt to deter attacks, a common practice in the region since the Houthis targeted vessels during the war in Gaza. At least 50 vessels in the region are broadcasting their presence of armed guards on board.

The damage could be catastrophic if ships are indeed attacked. “A lot of these ships are very large crude oil carriers,” said Martin Kelly from crisis management firm EOS Risk Group. “I think the damage would be catastrophic. There would certainly be deaths onboard these ships.”

As the situation in the Red Sea continues to escalate, global markets will be watching this standoff with great interest. The Houthis’ maritime embargo has revealed the vulnerability of the global energy system to shocks like these.

The stakes are high, and the consequences will be far-reaching. The Red Sea risks are not just about oil tankers or trade routes – they’re about the very fabric of global commerce and security.